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CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
830 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020

...WARM AND DRY INTO FRIDAY...
...COLDER WITH PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE 
WEEKEND...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE AM - MON AM)...

High pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep the west coast warm 
and dry through mid-week. By Thursday, expect an upper trough to dig 
into the Great Basin, nudging the eastern Pac high further offshore. 
This should bring cooler temperatures to the region, as well as a 
threat of precip through the weekend. 

First chance for precip comes late Friday, as a system drops out of 
the Pac NW and brushes far northern CA and Srn OR. This will also 
usher colder temperatures in for the weekend. For Saturday and 
Sunday, expect the system to drop through the Great Basin, leaving 
the possibility of showers over NV and along the crest and east side 
of the Sierra. Deterministic models are trending away from this, but 
the NBM, along with the WPC forecast, but lean in that direction. In 
addition, previous model runs have shown a weak s/wv moving through 
the SoCal coastal waters, bringing a threat of light precip to areas 
from Pt Conception southward, mainly along the coast, late Sat into 
early Monday. Low confidence, however, with model uncertainty.