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CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
905 AM PST Fri Feb 26 2021

...LIGHT PRECIP UPPER KLAMATH BASIN AND NRN NV THROUGH SAT...
...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION MON-
WED...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...

With NW flow over the region and a cold front and shortwave with an 
upper jet currently approaching from the north, light showers are 
affecting the southern OR Cascades and far north coast, and are 
approaching northern NV as well.  This pattern should persist 
through Sat before the trough moves to the east and a drier 
northerly flow sets up over the region.  Freezing levels 2000-4000 
ft are expected.  Expect a building ridge and dry conditions for Sun.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

Low confidence in the forecast for early next week due to large 
uncertainty in what will happen with a splitting system between 130 
and 140 W on Monday and the timing and strength and track of the 
northern stream and the cut off low that forms over the Eastern 
Pacific with the srn branch. The forecast for Monday was mainly WPC 
with a mix of previous forecast and the 00Z GFS and EC and for 
Tuesday mainly WPC mixed with a little GFS and EC and all WPC for 
Wednesday. The northern branch may brush by the northern portion of 
the region bringing precip to the Smith and Upper Klamath Basins and 
possibly into the Eel Basin and south along the Sierra and Nrn 
Nevada on Monday. WPC leans more towards GFS det and several 
ensemble member solutions and the Ens mean solutions of the low 
moving toward the CA coast on Tuesday and moving inland Wednesday. 
On the other hand the det EC has ridge off the CA coast Tuesday and 
over the region on Wednesday for dry conditions.  The forecast has 
some light precip over Srn CA and Srn Sierra and Ern NV Tuesday and 
Wednesday. 

Freezing levels generally around 4000-7000 ft Monday and Tuesday 
and 6000-9000 ft Wednesday.