National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service

Printer Version
CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

Version:  Current  |  Back 1  |  Back 2  |  Back 3  |  Back 4  |  Back 5  |
Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
100 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021

...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS FRI/SAT...
...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK AGAIN OVER THE NORTH...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU PM - SUN AM)...

Dry and breezy over much of the region this afternoon, as weak 
ridging moves overhead and a weak s/wv pushes through NV. Very 
little change made to the QPF forecast this afternoon, with not much 
model shift. A trough is expected to dig through the Pac NW, and 
take an inside track through NV Friday and Saturday. This will bring 
the threat of precip to the W Slopes of the Srn OR Cascades, as well 
as to Northern NV on Friday and Saturday. Expect the system to 
quickly exit on Saturday, focusing across NV as it does. Freezing 
levels should start around 2000-4000-ft, lowering to around 1000-
3000-ft overnight into Saturday.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SUN AM - WED AM)...

Expect dry conditions Sun as an upper low moves south into western 
AZ and ridging builds into the western U.S.  Guidance diverges 
significantly regarding a potential upper trough moving into the Pac 
NW Mon and potentially moving across the CNRFC forecast area through 
around Tue.  Looking at deterministic and ensemble guidance, ECMWF 
and CMC guidance show mainly light showers across mainly north coast 
and higher terrain areas of the region, while GEFS is mainly dry 
until Tue-Wed with some precip over southern CA.  WPC guidance 
seemed a bit dry considering how many ensemble members showed 
precip, and blended in some NBM Mon afternoon and then blended in 
some ECMWF guidance Mon night to incorporate the potential for a bit 
more widespread precip.  Expect freezing levels around 4000-7000 ft. 
Most guidance indicates a drying trend Tue.