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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1250 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021

...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP FAR NORTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH SAT...
...PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER SRN OR AND NW CA AND ALONG THE SIERRA ON 
MONDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED PM - SAT AM)...

Mainly dry except a few disturbances bring showers to the far north 
and Ern NV today into Saturday. Little changes to the forecast which 
follows WPC. The first shortwave trough is diving SSE through 
Eastern Nevada and the Great Basin today. This is bringing showers 
to far northern Nevada and over Eastern NV today. Not much moisture 
with this system (PW 0.15 or less) so precipitation amounts 
generally less than a tenth of an inch.  Dry weather expected 
overnight tonight between systems. The next shortwave moves into the 
Pac NW on Thursday with light precip possible over the upper Klamath 
Basin and far Nrn Nv as the end of system brushes by. The next 
system over the PaC NW drops into the Great Basin Friday night into 
Saturday. This will bring more showers to the Upper Klamath Basin 
and far Nrn and Eastern Nevada Friday into Saturday morning. Srn 
Oregon Cascades could see up to a half an inch and a quarter of an 
inch or less for NE NV Friday into early Saturday. 

Freezing levels around 2000 to 3000 feet over NE Nevada today and 
around 2000-4000ft across the far North Thursday and Friday.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

A shortwave is expected to dive south and clip eastern NV Sat before 
it eventually forms a cut-off low near the four-corners region. 
Expect enough moisture in the northerly flow for light showers Sat 
over the upper Klamath basin and northern NV.  Up to a couple tenths 
of an inch are possible in higher terrain, with lighter amounts 
elsewhere.  Freezing levels 1000-3000 ft are expected. Expect 
ridging to bring dry conditions Sun.

Model agreement is lower regarding a potential trough/upper low that 
may affect the region around Mon-Tue.  At this point, the only 
deterministic guidance showing precip is the ECMWF.  However, plenty 
of ensemble members show the potential for precip as well.  Best 
chance of light precip appears to be the far north coast, Sierra, 
and potentially southern CA higher terrain.  Amounts look very light 
in the dry air mass.  Have followed WPC guidance for the entire long-
range period. Freezing levels 5000-8000 ft are expected except 9000-
10000 ft for southern CA higher terrain.