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CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
815 AM PST Wed Feb 24 2021

...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP FAR NORTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER DISTRUBANCE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY/SAT...
...PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA MONDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)...

Mainly dry except a few disturbances bring showers to the far north 
today into Saturday. The first shortwave trough is currently over 
Idaho and Eastern OR and WA and will dive SSE through Eastern Nevada 
and the Great Basin during the day today. This will bring showers to 
far northern Nevada this morning and over Eastern NV late morning 
and afternoon. Not much moisture with this system (PW 0.15 or less) 
so precipitation amounts less than a tenth of an inch.  Dry weather 
expected tonight between systems. The next shortwave moves into the 
Pac NW on Thursday. Light precip possible over the upper Klamath 
Basin and far Nrn Nv as the end of system brushes by. West to NW 
flow may bring some light showers to the Upper Klamath Basin and far 
Nrn Nevada Friday. Another shortwave over Pac NW drops into the 
Great Basin Friday night into Saturday.  Showers possible over Upper 
Klamath Basin and Nrn Nevada Friday night into Saturday morning. Srn 
Oregon Cascades could see up to a half an inch and a quarter of an 
inch or less for NE NV Friday into early Saturday. 

Freezing levels around 2000 to 3000 feet over NE Nevada today and 
around 2500-4000ft across the far North Thursday and Friday.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

A shortwave is expected to dive south and clip eastern NV Sat before 
it eventually forms a cut-off low near the four-corners region. 
Expect enough moisture in the northerly flow for light showers Sat 
over the upper Klamath basin and northern NV.  Compared to previous 
runs, models are showing a more easterly solution that is drier for 
most of the CNRFC area.  Followed WPC QPF.  Freezing levels 2000-
4000 ft are expected. Expect ridging to bring dry conditions Sun.

Model agreement is lower regarding a weak trough expected to move 
across the Pac NW and potentially affect the CNRFC forecast area 
around Monday.  Although the latest deterministic guidance is dry 
for the region, plenty of ensemble members show the potential for 
precip across northern/central CA, and have followed WPC guidance 
which captures this possibility.  Freezing levels 8000-9500 ft are 
expected.