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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
135 PM PST Mon Mar 1 2021

...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP SRN CA/SRN SIERRA/ERN HALF OF NV WED 
INTO THU MORNING...
...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP EXPECTED NRN/CNTRL CA FRI THROUGH SAT... 

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: MON PM - WED NIGHT)...

Dry conditions expected through Tue night with an upper low off the 
CA coast.  As the low approaches and then moves across southern 
CA/NV, expect light to locally moderate precip to affect southern CA 
coastal basins, the southern Sierra and eastern NV Wed through Wed 
night.  Compared to the morning forecast, raised amounts for Wed 
late morning and afternoon and then lowered through Wed night. 
Followed WPC QPF through the period.  Freezing levels 5500-7500 ft 
are expected.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

Model differences in terms of timing the approaching upr trof at the 
end of the week continue with the 01/12Z models. GFS is still the 
fastest...while the EC and GEM are on the slower side of things. 
Once again...the EPS mean is very close to its operational 
counterpart while the GEFS mean is slower than its operational 
run...but not quite as slow as the EC. WPC QPF is more on the faster 
side as well. For now...trended the afternoon QPF update toward the 
slower solutions using the EC timing as the lead with some 6-hour 
offset of the GFS and WPC QPF. Decent confidence in this system 
rolling across the region at the end of the week...but low 
confidence in exact timing and details.