Hydrometeorological Discussion National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA 1250 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021 ...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP FAR NORTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH SAT... ...PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER SRN OR AND NW CA AND ALONG THE SIERRA ON MONDAY... .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED PM - SAT AM)... Mainly dry except a few disturbances bring showers to the far north and Ern NV today into Saturday. Little changes to the forecast which follows WPC. The first shortwave trough is diving SSE through Eastern Nevada and the Great Basin today. This is bringing showers to far northern Nevada and over Eastern NV today. Not much moisture with this system (PW 0.15 or less) so precipitation amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. Dry weather expected overnight tonight between systems. The next shortwave moves into the Pac NW on Thursday with light precip possible over the upper Klamath Basin and far Nrn Nv as the end of system brushes by. The next system over the PaC NW drops into the Great Basin Friday night into Saturday. This will bring more showers to the Upper Klamath Basin and far Nrn and Eastern Nevada Friday into Saturday morning. Srn Oregon Cascades could see up to a half an inch and a quarter of an inch or less for NE NV Friday into early Saturday. Freezing levels around 2000 to 3000 feet over NE Nevada today and around 2000-4000ft across the far North Thursday and Friday. .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)... A shortwave is expected to dive south and clip eastern NV Sat before it eventually forms a cut-off low near the four-corners region. Expect enough moisture in the northerly flow for light showers Sat over the upper Klamath basin and northern NV. Up to a couple tenths of an inch are possible in higher terrain, with lighter amounts elsewhere. Freezing levels 1000-3000 ft are expected. Expect ridging to bring dry conditions Sun. Model agreement is lower regarding a potential trough/upper low that may affect the region around Mon-Tue. At this point, the only deterministic guidance showing precip is the ECMWF. However, plenty of ensemble members show the potential for precip as well. Best chance of light precip appears to be the far north coast, Sierra, and potentially southern CA higher terrain. Amounts look very light in the dry air mass. Have followed WPC guidance for the entire long- range period. Freezing levels 5000-8000 ft are expected except 9000- 10000 ft for southern CA higher terrain. |