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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1230 PM PST Mon Jan 24 2022

...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NV EARLY TUESDAY AS A 
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THE REST OF 
THE WEEK...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOCAL SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A 
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER NORCAL SUNDAY/MONDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: MON PM - THU AM)...

No changes to the forecast in the near term. High pressure remains 
in place over the eastern Pacific keeping conditions dry today. A 
shortwave trough will move through the interior tonight into early 
Tuesday. This may bring some light precip to eastern NV, though 
likely not more than a few hundredths of an inch. A second but 
weaker shortwave will travel along a similar path Wednesday and 
Wednesday night. This one, however, looks completely dry. The ridge 
will then shift slightly eastward over the west coast in the 
wake of the trough with dry weather persisting into Thursday.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

12Z models in better agreement with drier forecast for Friday 
keeping the low offshore and then moving low inland into Srn CA on 
Saturday. A few showers possible over Srn CA (around Point 
Conception and south) on Saturday but limited moisture so precip 
amounts should be light. The forecast uses WPC except mixed with GFS 
and EC for Saturday afternoon and night for light precip possible 
over Srn CA.  Freezing levels above 8000 ft. A trough will approach 
the west coast Sunday/Monday possibly bringing some precip to at 
least the north. EC ensemble mean trending drier for next week but 
GFS trending a little wetter. Either way looks like still below 
normal precip for the start of February for most of region. Most of 
8-10 day clusters showing trough over the region but one (21%) keeps 
ridging and dry conditions over the region for the start of 
February.