...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES
MONDAY...
...RENEWED RAINFALL CHANCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT PM - FRI AM)...

Minor updates to the forecast in the short term. Conditions have not
changed much since this morning. An upper ridge remains the dominant
weather feature, steering moisture northward into the Pacific
Northwest, while a dry upper low approaches Baja and a weak surface
low and cold front move into the Pacific Northwest. This front looks
to move through the region on Sunday, though no precip is expected
with this system. The next surface low still expected to move down
along the Pacific Northwest coast on Monday. Still looks fairly
unimpressive with only about 0.10"-0.25" expected for the wettest
spots Monday into Tuesday. Freezing levels will also lower down to
around 7-9 kft from NE to SW starting Monday morning. Levels should
rebound from W to E later Tuesday back to 10-12 kft for most of the
region.

Another trough is then still on track to move into British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest on Wednesday before expanding to engulf
most of the western U.S. in a longwave pattern into late next week.
A cold front extending southward from Canada over the eastern
Pacific looks to also move through CA/NV late Wednesday through
Thursday while an embedded shortwave approaches from the NW reaching
northern CA on Thursday. Models keep another 1+" PW plume offshore
associated with this feature, though disagreement regarding the
timing and positioning persists. Forecast remains on track for
precip on Thursday and into Friday morning with highest totals still
over the Sierra. A good number of both model's ensemble members
agree on higher amounts there as well, of course with differences
still in magnitude, placement, and timing. Colder air moving in will
also drop freezing levels from N to S down to 3.5-6 kft by early
Thursday morning with these values then spreading across most of the
region by the evening, and even down to 2-3 kft for the north by
that time. Overall, looks like a potential wet pattern for mid to
late next week. Will have a better idea of the details as we get
closer.