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MAD RIVER - ARCATA (ARCC1)

Latitude: 40.91º N	Longitude: 124.06º W	Elevation: 13 Feet
Location: Humboldt County in California		Bulletin Group: North Coast		River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Dec 11, 2023 at 7:57 AM PST

Monitor Stage: 15.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 22.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): ARCC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
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What information is considered in this forecast?

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Impacts - E19 Information
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding begins on the Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.
18.0 Feet	Minor flooding on Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.
21.0 Feet	Flooding of Mad River Beach Road. Water may be flowing over roads to Tyee City. Flooding will be enhanced if the time of the crest is coincident with high tides and strong onshore winds.
22.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road. Water may flow across roads to Tyee City. Flood impacts will be aggravated by high tides and strong onshore winds.
23.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farm lands is likely. May cause water to flow across roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong onshore winds will aggravate flood impacts.
24.0 Feet	Extensive flooding along Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farm lands. Some homes along the river could be threatened. Flooding of roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong onshore winds worsen impacts.
26.0 Feet	Severe flooding along Mad River Beach Road and extensive flooding of farm lands and other roads in the area. Flooding of residential areas around Tyee City is likely. Any low-lying areas near the river could be flooded. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property.
28.0 Feet	Severe flooding of all low-lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to protect lives and property. This includes residential areas of Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, US Highway 101 near Janes Road, areas near Giuntoli Lane, and Mad River Beach Road.
30.0 Feet	Extensive, severe flooding of all low-lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. Critical locations include residential areas of Blue Lake, Tyee City and Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 near Janes Road and areas near Giuntoli Lane.
32.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to approach record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be inundated and travel will be severely restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City, and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and McKinleyville.
33.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to exceed record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be inundated and travel will be severely restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City, and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and McKinleyville.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ103)

Today: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning. Highs 53 to 63. Southeast wind around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 39 to 49. North wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 54 to 64. Northeast wind around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 34 to 44. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs 53 to 63. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40 to 50. Highs 53 to 67.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Highs 58 to 68.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 41 to 51. Highs 56 to 68.

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