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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Dec 11, 2023 at 8:06 AM PST

Monitor Stage: 25.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 32.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): AROC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
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What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Impacts - E19 Information
25.0 Feet	Scouring of lowlands throughout the Pajaro Valley in areas not protected by levees.
28.0 Feet	Some minor flooding of lowest agricultural areas in all reaches above Chittenden. Some secondary roads begin to flood. Watsonville levees within 3 feet of top.
29.5 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville within 2 feet of top. Moderate bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout reach. Some secondary roads flooded. State Highway 129 between US 101 and Watsonville begins to flood at railroad underpass 300 feet below gage and other lower spots along the river.
32.0 Feet	Significant damage from bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout reach. Some primary and many secondary roads flooded. Minor flooding of low portions of towns within the reach of the gage begins. Damage to roads and bridges possible due to erosion or logjams.
32.5 Feet	Widespread flooding through the Pajaro Valley, with extensive damage and possible loss of life. Extensive erosion and logjam damage to highways and bridges. Many primary and most secondary roads flooded making transportation difficult.
33.11 Feet	Extensive flood damage throughout the Pajaro Valley. Transportation extremely difficult. Watsonville and Pajaro levees overtopped or severely strained if sandbagged.
33.5 Feet	Severe damage in Pajaro Valley, especially in Pajaro and Watsonville areas and likely near San Juan Bautista along the San Benito River and portions south of Gilroy near the Pajaro River. Transportation essentially impossible.
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs.
35.0 Feet	Bankfull at gage. Transportation impossible. Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro in great danger of failing.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Rest of Today: Partly cloudy late in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs in the mid 60s. Light winds and becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph and becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.

Thursday through Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the mid 40s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 70.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Highs in the upper 60s.

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