CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Back to Ensemble Products Map

Location:

<<< Previous Ensemble Location (CEMC1) | Next Ensemble Location (STWN2) >>>

EAST FORK CARSON RIVER - GARDNERVILLE (GRDN2)

Latitude: 38.85º N	Longitude: 119.70º W	Elevation: 4988 Feet
Location: Douglas County in Nevada		Bulletin Group: Eastern Sierra		River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Dec 11, 2023 at 7:57 AM PST

Monitor Stage: 13.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 14.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): GRDN2

Select Threshold to Use:

Monitor Stage Flood Stage Custom Threshold

Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Impacts - E19 Information
13.0 Feet	Monitor stage. Near Bank full, no flooding occurring. Residents along the river should prepare for flooding if additional rises due to snowmelt and/or rainfall runoff occur. Flood prone areas include Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Dr, Riverview Dr, Centerville Rd, NV Highway 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Dresslerville Rd, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes.
13.5 Feet	Lowest portions of Carson Valley begin to have flood threat. The most flood prone areas include the Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Drive, Riverview Drive, Centerville Road, NV Hwy 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Dresslerville Road, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes.
14.0 Feet	Flood Stage. Minor lowland flooding in Carson Valley. Low-lying roads, bridges, and drainage structures begin to sustain minor damage. Cottonwood Slough begins to flood Lampe Park. Flood prone areas include Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Dr, Riverview Dr., Centerville Ln., NV Highway 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes. Possible impacts to south bound Highway 395 lanes north of Stephanie Way.
14.5 Feet	Minor flooding in Carson Valley with some outbuildings, roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Washoe Tribe Reservation and Genoa flooded. Highway 395 lane closures north of Stephanie Way possible.
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding in Carson Valley with some mobile home communities, outbuildings, many roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Washoe Tribe Reservation and Genoa flooded. Lane closures on Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way likely. Similar level to 2/2017 flood.
15.5 Feet	Moderate flood damage in Carson Valley area. Flooding starts to impact homes, businesses, schools, transportation, communication, and water and power systems. Closure of Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way likely.
16.0 Feet	Moderate flood damage in Carson Valley. Some homes, business, schools, roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Genoa, and Washoe Tribe Reservation flood. Moderate flood impacts to transportation, communication, and water and power systems. Highway 395 closure north of Stephanie Way likely. Flood level similar to January 2017 event.
16.5 Feet	Major flooding in Carson Valley with significant damage. East Fork of Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henninson Sloughs, which flood low portions of Minden/Gardnerville near downtown causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, including prolonged impacts to Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way, communication, and water and power systems significantly affected.
17.0 Feet	Major flooding in Carson valley with significant damage. The East Fork of the Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henningson Sloughs which flood portions of Minden/Gardnerville near downtown, causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Major effects to transportation, communication, and water and power systems.
17.5 Feet	Major flooding in Carson valley with significant damage. The East Fork of the Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henningson Sloughs which flood portions of Minden/Gardnerville downtown areas, causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Major effects to transportation, communication, water and power systems.
18.0 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
18.5 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Potential for major bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
19.0 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
19.5 Feet	Near Record Flooding. All roads in and out of Carson Valley flooded. Extensive damage to homes businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles. Roughly similar to January 1997 event.
20.0 Feet	Record Flooding. All roads in and out of Carson Valley flooded. Large portion of Carson Valley under water. Extensive damage to homes businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles. Similar to, or in excess of, January 1997 event.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (NVZ003)

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 43 to 53. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 20 to 30. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 43 to 48. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 18 to 28. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs 40 to 50. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 24 to 29.

Thursday through Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Highs 44 to 54. Lows 26 to 31.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Highs 46 to 56. Lows 26 to 31.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Highs 48 to 53.

NWS RSS Feed