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GUADALUPE RIVER - SAN JOSE AT ALMADEN EXPRESSWAY (GUDC1)

Latitude: 37.28º N	Longitude: 121.88º W	Elevation: 150 Feet
Location: Santa Clara County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: South Bay

Issuance Time:

Dec 08, 2023 at 8:11 AM PST

Monitor Stage: 7.5 Feet

Flood Stage: 9.5 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in kcfs): GUDC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

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Impacts - E19 Information
7.5 Feet	Additional flow from Canoas Creek watershed or increased reservoir spills may bring river to flood stage.
9.5 Feet	River begins to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue bridge into the Elk's Lodge, spilling north.
11.5 Feet	River continues to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue bridge into the Elk's Lodge, spillilng north along Lelong Street. Alma Avenue/CA-87 Viaduct is flooded. Creek overbanks west near Minnesota Avenue downstream of Alma Avenue. Properties south of the old UPRR alignment in the northern Cross neighborhood are also at risk. Thousand Oaks Park is also at risk of flooding.
11.73 Feet	Historical high water mark, January 1995.
14.0 Feet	Flooding continues to spill near Alma Avenue, flowing northward and crossing under Willow Street and Alma Avenue Viaducts, continuing to flow north. Overbanking occurs at Atlanta Avenue just upstream of CA-87. The Willow Glen neighborhood bounded by Willow Street and Minnesota Avenue see overland flooding. Overbanking occurs in various locations between Alma Avenue and Willow Glen Way. Potential flooding on Ross and Canoas Creeks due to high backwater caused by Guadalupe River.
15.5 Feet	Washington/Guadalupe, Tamien and Alma/Almaden neighborhoods east of CA-87 inundated from floodwaters traveling under street viaducts from the west. Widespread flooding in the eastern Willow Glen neighborhood, as well as the Gardner and Atlanta/Bird neighborhoods. CA-87/I-280 interchange at risk from overland flow spilling on the roadway. Possible overtopping of the Guadalupe River between Branham and Capitol, mainly on the east side with water flowing through streets. Areas along Thousand Oaks Park and near Capitol Expressway at risk of overbanking. If flood is sustained or increasing, car dealerships along Capitol Expressway are inundated. The Thousand Oaks neighborhood experiences significant street flooding and overtopping occurs near Branham Lane, as well as flooding businesses and the Erickson neighborhood. Potential flooding on Ross and Canoas Creeks due to high backwater caused by the Guadalupe River.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ513)

Rest of Today: Sunny. Highs around 60. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph and Becoming north in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.

Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Monday Night through Wednesday: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.

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