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BEAR CREEK - MCKEE ROAD (MEEC1)

Latitude: 37.31º N	Longitude: 120.44º W	Elevation: 187 Feet
Location: Merced County in California		Bulletin Group: San Joaquin		River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Dec 11, 2023 at 7:58 AM PST

Monitor Stage: 17.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 23.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): MEEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
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What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Impacts - E19 Information
16.0 Feet	South Bike Path along Bear Creek floods downstream of G Street Bridge.
17.0 Feet	Storm drains begin to back up. Street flooding occurs mainly north of Bear Creek Drive and east of M Street.
23.0 Feet	Beechwood Subdivision and the trailer park along the southern end of Bear Creek Drive floods in addition to Applegate Park on the south side of Bear Creek Drive.
24.0 Feet	The water flows toward the low point of Cooper Drive; businesses begin to flood.
26.18 Feet	Flood of Record - 01/10/2023. Water impacts the bottom of the M Street and G Street bridges. Water escapes its banks at E South Bear Creek Drive between Glen Avenue and Cameron Lane.
27.2 Feet	The 26.18 feet flood of record took water up to the top of the levee system at the north end of Morse Drive and Thurman Court. This levee system has since been raised to 27.2 feet.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ302)

Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of frost and patchy fog early in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Patchy fog and frost after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Areas of fog and patchy frost in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s. East winds up to 5 mph shifting to the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog through the night. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. Widespread frost and patchy fog in the morning. Highs around 60. Northeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s.

Thursday through Friday: Mostly cloudy. Areas of frost in the morning. Areas of frost. Highs in the mid 60s. Lows in the mid 30s.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the upper 30s.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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