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SAN LUIS REY RIVER - OCEANSIDE (SLOC1)

Latitude: 33.22º N	Longitude: 117.36º W	Elevation: 20 Feet
Location: San Diego County in California		Bulletin Group: Southern California		River Group: San Diego/Inland

Issuance Time:

Dec 11, 2023 at 7:29 AM PST

Monitor Stage: N/A

Flood Stage: 21.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): SLOC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
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What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Impacts - E19 Information
21.0 Feet	Damage unknown. Bridge approaches upstream threatened and at risk of undermining.
24.5 Feet	Damage unknown. Camino Del Rey, Couser Canyon, and Shearer Crossing Bridge approaches at risk of being washed out.
28.0 Feet	Scouring and undermining of roads and structures adjacent to the river channel. Bridge approaches designed to wash out at high flows destroyed. Indian gaming casinos parking facilities under water. Most significant damage upstream of levee with adjacent cropland underwater and homes threatened. Some infrastructure facilities damaged in city of Oceanside.
29.0 Feet	Overtopping levee. Henshaw Dam was not in place nor was the levee at time of record flow. Levee is designed for PMF of 85,000 cfs. Peak adjusted discharge of 1916 event with Henshaw Dam is estimated to be 54,000 cfs. This is also assumed to be the 100 year storm.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ043)

Today: Partly cloudy. Highs around 69 near the coast to 72 inland. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 42 to 50. Areas of winds south 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with patchy fog in the morning and Becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Areas of winds south 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 41 to 48. Areas of winds south 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with patchy fog in the morning and Becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Light winds becoming northwest 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 43 to 49.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 73 near the coast to 75 inland.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 46 to 52.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 76 near the coast to 77 inland.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 55.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 76 near the coast to 78 inland.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 49 to 54.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 75 near the coast to 76 inland.

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